Working Papers

[Job Market Paper] Hyeseon Shin. Agriculture, Trade, Migration and Climate Change. [Draft]

Presentations: Camp Resources XXX, AAEA Annual Meeting, AAEA-KREI Workshop, Summer School in International Economics by the Journal of International Economics, MEA Annual Meeting, MSU AFRE Brown Bag Seminar, IATRC Annual Meeting, Columbia University IPWSD

Abstract
Climate change can affect agricultural production through land productivity and multicropping capacities, with effects largely heterogeneous across countries and crops. Given the agricultural sector’s substantial contribution to both income and employment in many developing economies, evolving agro-climatic conditions have the potential to reshape labor reallocation as well as agricultural production. I build and quantify a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model incorporating farmers’ optimal crop choices, international trade, and forward-looking household migration. Findings indicate that under RCP 8.5, the overall global welfare effect on agricultural workers is modest, yet welfare effects vary substantially across countries. Results also highlight that the general equilibrium effects of labor mobility are nontrivial, and domestic structural transformation, in particular, plays a crucial role in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change.

Yongyang Cai, Khyati Malik, Hyeseon Shin. Dynamics of Global Emission Permit Prices and Regional Social Cost of Carbon under Noncooperation. [Preprint].

Presentations: LSE Environment Camp, Heartland Workshop, OSU Interdisciplinary Research Fall Forum: Computational Approaches for a Just and Sustainable World

Abstract
We build a dynamic multi-region model of climate and economy with emission permit trading among 12 aggregated regions in the world. We solve for the dynamic Nash equilibrium under noncooperation, wherein each region adheres to the emission cap constraints following commitments that were first outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement and updated in subsequent years. Our model shows that the emission permit price reaches $811 per ton of carbon by 2050. We demonstrate that a regional carbon tax is complementary to the global cap-and-trade system, and the optimal regional carbon tax is equal to the difference between the regional marginal abatement cost and the permit price.

Publications

Jihyun Eum, Ian Sheldon, Hyeseon Shin, Stanley Thompson (2024). Upgrading Food Product Quality: Evaluating the Impact of Competition and Non-Tariff Measures. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Link]

Abstract
In this paper, the effect of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on upgrading of food product quality is analyzed. Based on a multi-sector Schumpeterian model, and given threat of entry, compliance costs, and monopoly profits, NTMs are predicted to have heterogeneous effects on quality upgrading. Using disaggregated data for 14 European Union (EU) countries across 18 food industries for the period 2008-2019, NTM enforcement is found to deter quality upgrading for products distant from the quality frontier due to compliance costs. Conversely, NTM enforcement stimulates quality upgrading for products close to the quality frontier, given an increased probability of capturing monopoly profits.

Hyeseon Shin, Raphael Gomes de Silva, Valentyn Litvinov, Saera Oh, Anh Phuoc Thien Nguyen (2024). The Future of (Ag-) Trade and Trade Governance in Times of Economic Sanctions and Declining Multilateralism. IATRC Trade Policy Brief. [PDF]